The Democratic takeover of the Congress has been impressive. The mood of the country seems to be that it is time for a change, time to try a different way of doing things. Exit polls show that the top issues which affected the way that people voted were the scandals and the war in Iraq.
The blue wave did not wash over the mostly Republican 2nd Congressional district, which re-elected Republican incumbent Thelma Drake by a margin of 51.29% to 48.48% over Democratic challenger Phil Kellam (as of this writing, all 153 precincts reporting, no conditional votes included). For that matter, none of the Congressional districts in Virginia changed hands. But as I only observed the Drake/Kellam race up close, I cannot say what happened in the other districts. As for the race in the 2nd, I can only share what I observed.
With the wind of change at his back, this was Kellam’s race to lose. Drake was running the campaign of her life, but that didn’t change the fact that she was a first term Republican incumbent in a time when the mood of the country was to change the course. I thought the Kellam campaign was on track to win this race. The polls were all over the place but I felt that Kellam had an edge. That is, until he backed out of the debates.
Challengers are usually eager to debate incumbents. It is an opportunity to get to voters, to let them see and hear you in a way that a commercial or a mail piece cannot convey. (Not that there was any mail to speak of in this campaign. Seems somewhere along the line, the decision was made on both sides to fight this battle on TV. Also true of the Webb/Allen race. Almost all of the mail I received this election cycle came from third parties.) So I was surprised and bewildered that Kellam would do abandon this opportunity.
Appropriately, the Drake campaign jumped on this. It seemed that the TV ads intensified. The charges flew fast and furiously, with Kellam not really responding. I got a phone call from the NRCC nearly every afternoon for the last couple of weeks, warning of liberal speaker Nancy Pelosi. The mail pieces were all about Kellam wanting to raise taxes. Charges that go unchallenged become truth. In today’s paper, I read comments from people who said they voted for Drake because Kellam was going to raise taxes.
By not participating in the debates, Kellam relinquished an opportunity to reach out and touch voters, to respond to the charges face to face. I’ve said it before – a candidate has to answer two questions: why the incumbent should be fired and why he should be hired. Even in the only televised debate, Kellam only answered the first question. He never gave the voters a reason hire him. Iraq was a topic on which he could have sailed into Congress.
So it was opportunity lost. I suspect that if there were such a thing as do-overs, Kellam would have participated in those debates. He would have articulated his thoughts on Iraq and other issues.
I also suspect that we haven’t heard the last of Phil Kellam. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he ran against Drake again in 2008. If so, that campaign starts today. But it won’t be an easy. The first bite at the apple is usually the best chance. Rematches have a way of favoring the first winner. And in politics, two years is a long time.
VIVIAN J. PAIGE | All Politics is Local 
I wondered what happened to #4 😉 No doubt about the yes signs on the churches. Last Sunday, there was a push by the yes camp to have the ministers talk about the amendment. And we got an advisory that it was OK for the churches to have that up.
As for the mail – you saw the same stuff I did. We got the RP pieces, too, which was quite strange because the early mail was addressed to me (which was why I know it was targeted), while the RP pieces were addressed to my other half.
I wanted to do an analysis to see if Webb did better in the 2nd Congressional District than Kellam. Here is what I found
VA Beach
Webb – 57,631 Kellam – 58,590
Norfolk
Webb – 11,380 Kellam – 10,684
Hampton
Webb – 7,824 Kellam – 7,548
Accomack
Webb – 5,059 Kellam – 4,732
Northhampton
Webb – 2,302 Kellam – 2,323
I did a precinct by precinct total for Hampton and Norfolk since they are not all in the 2nd.
2nd Congressional –
Webb – 83,841 Kellam – 83,877
Allen – 88,681 Drake – 88,746
Webb loses by 4,840
Kellam loses by 4,869
Webb picks up more votes than Kellam in Hampton, Norfolk, and Accomack. Kellam picks up more votes in Virginia Beach and Northhampton.
No Webb cotails for Kellam. What a shame!
Kellam was a lightweight. All of us in Va Beach know him as the pompous rich boy with the recognizable last name. The 2nd district is heavily Republican and even with the tide totally against Republicans in the country, the lightweight couldn’t even pull it out. 2008 will be another loss for Kellam if he has the guts to run. The tide will not be so much in favor of Democrats then. I voted for Allen and Drake and against the amendment (our constitution is there only to restrict government not civil rights). Thank you people of Virginia Beach for your support of Allen and Drake. They were the lesser of two evils.
I worked the Holland precinct for Thelma and witness something I hope is not a sign of things to come. Just as the sun was coming up a large black very expensive looking Lexus pulled up and out stepped two of the best dressed poll workers I’ve seen while working polls for going on 15 years.
They began handing out Webb/Kellam info & the Goldenrod sample ballot. After an hour or so I introduced myself and found out they both were well spoken, Muslims from New York. I talked politics with one of them for some time and one of the men tried to teach me a few phrases in Arabic. I have to say they were two of the nicest most educated Democrats I’ve had the privilege of meeting.
Towards the end of the day I found out who they were. Both worked for New York Congress men. One was a Chief of Staff and the other was Head of Legislative Affairs. Both were long time professional political operatives who took time off for a few days to come down to our neck of the woods to see if they could help swing the election.
During a national campaign poll workers typically have little impact other then to irritate voters and I normally use these elections to demonstrate Republicans are in the area and want to reach out to voters. This year a total of four Democrats worked Holland precinct and all of them were from out of town. Hopefully this is not a trend as I for one dislike outside forces trying to swing Virginia politics be it MoveOn.org or the national parties incessant and extremely irritating automatic phone calling campaigns.
The result of Tuesday’s all out assault on Holland precinct? The ratios were almost exactly that of the last Presidential vote which was to be expected during a highly advertised national election or maybe I neutralized the carpetbag democrats. More then likely the electorate came to the polls with their minds made up although I did see Thelma personally change at least one vote by working the poll for nearly an hour.
Remember, vote early and vote often or you don’t have the right to complain about your government.