Topic is campaigns
Blogging is a new phenomenon for him. Ran his first campaign in 1980. Ran his first campaign for governor in 1989. Has handled 7 statewide campaign battles in VA – one 5, lost 2. (Both losses – Jim Miller)
Most campaigns are decided by the demographics of the district. The second most important thing is money and the candidate. Third thing is when there is a wave coming, you better be prepared. What happened in November was a wave.
Allen race and his loss has affected the Republican psyche in the General Assembly, which is why there is such a push to get a transportation bill done, even though the Webb/Allen race had nothing to do with transportation. Allen, at best, was going to get 52%/53% of the vote – assuming Webb ran out of money.
This year, there are a few seats up for grabs, particularly if there are retirements. The big question is how much the governor will do in recruiting candidates and giving money.
There is a clear way for the Democrats to take control of the Senate: if they run strong candidates where the leadership of the Senate is, it will attract some independents to also run, giving the race to the Democrats. (He doesn’t think the Ds will do this.)
If not, will go after the three seats in NoVa, Rerras and Quayle.
On the House side, doesn’t see any changes at all.
NoVA demographic changes – need to compare Bolling/McDonald numbers to Byrne/Deeds numbers in order to try to determine the base.
Specific questions about Norfolk races – thinks Paula Miller is safe and so is Nick Rerras.